A straight-in approach is safer than a standard pattern

straight inOn a recent morning while hangar flying with some colleagues, we were engaged in a heated debate on pattern entries and what is considered appropriate. Most pilots are taught pattern entries during their training and a 45 degree entry to the upwind or downwind leg seemed to be the most commonly taught. If consulting the Aeronautical Information Manual (AIM), you’ll note only one recommendation for pattern entry, that being in level flight, abeam the midpoint of the runway, at pattern altitude. But is this safer than shooting a straight in approach?

As background, Sporty’s is based at an active general aviation airport just east of Cincinnati, Ohio and is home to nearly 150 small aircraft including a busy flight school. As such, it’s not uncommon for as many as three aircraft to be mixing it up in the pattern with two more awaiting a window of opportunity to depart. But we also have moments of blissful isolation when it feels as if you have the entire airport environment to yourself.

patternWhile some remain staunch supporters of patterns and appropriate entries no matter the circumstances, I make a case for straight in approaches for landings in certain situations. Before you revoke my license and feed me to the tigers, hear me out. In aviation, there is no shortage of risk management debates. Flying is an inherently risky business. Accepting and managing these risks is a big part of what we do when we take to the air.

We are more likely to encounter other traffic around the airport environment as opposed to enroute cross-country flying at 7,500 feet. While some say that this is the reason we must fly a full pattern at non-towered fields so to give us the best opportunity for predictability and to see and avoid other traffic, I propose an alternate solution.

Flying a 45-degree entry to upwind followed by a complete circuit around the pattern will take approximately 4-6 minutes at most small airports.  Given that the airport environment has the most traffic congestion, should we not try to minimize this exposure by minimizing our time in this environment? A straight in approach reduces your exposure to well under a minute.

pattern diagramObviously, there are other factors that come in to play. There isn’t a one size fits all solution. If there are four airplanes already in the traffic pattern and two waiting to take off, a straight in pattern might make you the least popular pilot around the coffee pot in the lobby of the FBO; however, in situations when there are no aircraft in the pattern, none waiting to take off, and you are already flying from an area where a straight in approach would be the most efficient method of entry, why not take the most efficient route to landing?

Doing so will free up the airspace for others coming in to land and also results in less low-level maneuvering. Add in an active traffic avoidance system along with announced intentions/position reports on CTAF, and we might find that the straight in approach is a safer solution. I would emphasize that making a straight in approach takes experience and practice as you certainly won’t have the same visual cues and checkpoints as you would flying a standard pattern. Keep your options open and discuss various circumstances with your instructor. You may be glad you did.

Visibility: more than meets the eye

Visibility, unlike so many other weather terms in aviation, seems so simple. It’s a measure of how far you can see, right? What nuances can there possibly be?

Turns out, a lot.

Hazy day 182Visibility may be the single most important weather metric for VFR pilots, and it’s right up there for IFR pilots too. While weather conditions are usually reported in terms of ceiling and visibility, it’s the latter that usually matters more. An 8000 ft. overcast may sound like good VFR, but if it’s 3 miles underneath that cloud deck, things will look very murky. I’ll take good visibility over high ceilings every time.

That’s especially true if it’s raining. Rain can have a dramatic effect on visibility, and if it’s showery (with bands of rain moving through the area) the visibility could swing from good VFR to low IFR within the span of a few minutes. So don’t stop at the visibility number when reading a METAR – make sure you consider any precipitation too. As a rough guide, you can almost cut the observed visibility in half if it’s raining.

But visibility is affected by more than just the wet stuff – haze is actually the VFR pilot’s worst enemy. The John F. Kennedy, Jr. crash in 1999 is a classic example. While weather conditions were legal VFR, hazy conditions made the horizon nearly impossible to see (the open water environment made this even worse). The VFR-only pilot lost control over the ocean and crashed. Legal to fly? Absolutely. Safe? Probably not. At least not for this pilot in this airplane.

I thought of this accident on a recent flight from Chicago to Cincinnati, when I was reminded just how disorienting it can be to fly in thick haze. On this day, the combination of hot summer haze and smoke from some large Canadian wildfires had brought visibility down to about 4 miles (see photo at right). The whole world took on a fuzzy, gray appearance, and I was glad to have an instrument rating.

As we flew on at 9000 ft., we were comforted by the fact that we could still see the ground. How bad can it be, right?

182 looking down in haze

But this was a trap. After all, at 9,000 ft., seeing the ground doesn’t mean much: visibility could be as low as 2 miles. Looking out the front windshield, which is what really matters, visibility was effectively zero. In fact, we nearly stumbled into a cloud because we couldn’t see it. Not to mention the traffic issue: while we saw multiple traffic targets on our G1000 screen, we never saw one with our eyes.

The lesson is clear: what you see is what you get. No matter what the METAR says, if you’re uncomfortable with the situation, it’s time to file IFR (if you’re instrument rated) or land (if not).

Visibility sensorAnother trap, although less dangerous, is the catch-all report of “visibility 10 miles.” Most airport weather sensors only go to 10 miles, so even on days when visibility is 35 miles you’ll hear 10 on the AWOS or ATIS. This can cause your brain to subconsciously calibrate a report of “10 miles” with nearly unlimited visibility. But the first day you fly when the visibility really is 10 miles, you’re likely to be surprised. It’s not unsafe, but it’s a little unsettling. 

A good way to counteract this is to always have the big picture in mind. Is there a big high pressure system that’s packing the haze in or has a strong cold front come through recently to clear out the atmosphere? Both situations could result in a report of “10 miles,” but the view out the front window will be different. Go beyond the METAR for the true story.

A final consideration is the sensor on the airport that determines visibility. These work well most of the time, but they are subject to errors. Even when they’re not, they can only report conditions at a single point on the airport. That’s helpful, but what really counts is what you see as the pilot on short final. Don’t become a slave to the electronic eye.

Even the FAA trusts pilots more than electronics: instrument pilots must have the “required flight visibility” in order to complete an approach. Note that the term is flight visibility, as observed from the cockpit, not what the airport weather station senses. That is recognition that, once again, “what you see is what you get.”

Self Weather Briefings

Given the recent change in technology, more weather information is available at pilots’ fingertips than ever before.  With this improvement, pilots can turn to many different sources for weather information, instead of just Flight Service or DUATS.  Pilots grab this information and form their own “self-briefings” as opposed to the formal briefings offered by Flight Service; and while these self briefings are often faster and more convenient than their traditional counterparts, they can open pilots to omitting key sources of weather information and provide incomplete briefings.  Here are some tips to keep your self-briefings complete and effective.

In order to understand what the weather is doing on a local level, you must first understand what the weather is doing on a national and regional level. These large scale weather maps will begin to set the canvas for your weather picture for the day and your upcoming flight.  While most pilots are not forecasters, we can still use these tools to explain the source of many weather phenomena and help fill in gaps left from smaller, local forecasts.

Many of the common used forecasts and observations, like TAFs and METARs, leave a lot of area unforecast.  TAFs only forecast an area of 5-10nm around the airport, and METARs are just an observation at the airport itself; not the surrounding area.  These are just some of the limitations that any one weather product has and in order to overcome these shortcomings, you need to create a mosaic of different weather products with overlapping areas and purposes to get a complete picture.

The first few items to review in your briefing should be national observation charts, like the Surface Analysis chart and the Airmet/Sigmet map for the country.    hpc_sfc_analysisThese give you a high level overview of weather systems and hazardous areas for aircraft.  All other forecasts and observations can be put in reference to these backdrops.

With the large scale focus still in mind, you will then want to switch to forecasts over large areas.  Prognostic charts offer the best long range planning, but are still useful in the 0-12 hr range.  Depending on which products you have available and which service you are using, the next charts would likely be Convective Forecasts (CCFP, Convective Outlook), Icing Forecasts (CIP/FIP, Freezing level forecast), and Turbulence (GTG if applicable).  These are more detailed geographically than their Airmet/Sigmet counterparts, and provide more detailed information with respect to intensity, altitudes affected, and timeframe.

Winds Aloft forecasts come as both a graphical and textual format, but their graphical forms are convenient for altitude selections and temperature considerations, especially in the winter time while avoiding icing conditions.  Also, many flight planning tools will also display similar altitudes and its winds/ETE to allow for easier fuel/time decisions.

Several new graphical prediction products are available to indicate widespread areas of cloud ceilings, and visibilities, which are easier to interpret than the former weather depiction charts and offer analysis as well as forecast time periods.  Following those charts up with the textual Area Forecast products will answer any remaining questions about widespread clouds, winds and weather.

End your forecast review with TAF or MOS products from your departure to your destination and the course in between, allowing for viewing off-route as needed to fill in the gaps in forecast areas.  These are the most detailed of the forecast products and give an hour-by-hour cloud, wind, visibility and precipitation forecast that are useful in determining your go/no-go decision.  Although these may be the easiest to read, do not rely solely on this product.  Incorporate all of the forecast products into making the best informed decision possible.

IMG_6632As we have worked from larger areas to smaller areas and the distant future to near future, we now need to analyze current conditions.  Start with Satellite and Radar imagery to give you the biggest overview as you work smaller.  Each of these products offer a different insight and will be needed when we reference back to their forecast conditions.  PIREPS are also a large scale area product and offer the only direct weather observation by other pilots.  Keep in mind what type of aircraft gave the report and how that difference in aircraft can affect your experience in the same weather phenomena.

201508142030_metarsNCVAfcat_LWS End your review with the current conditions at your departure and destination using METARs or other graphical charts of current conditions, like the weather depiction chart or the newer CVA charts.  Remember to compare the current information back with its forecast information to determine if conditions are changing faster or slower than originally expected, or if the forecast has gone in a different direction.  This little comparison is often ahead of TAF or Area Forecast updates and can help prevent getting you into a sticky situation.

NOTAMs and TFRs are not weather products, but should always be incorporated into a complete weather briefing.  The information gained is not only a legal requirement, but can prevent embarrassing situations like getting to the airport only to find out that the runway has been closed for repairs.

Keep your self-briefings organized and thorough, and you’ll stay ahead of the weather.

720 Miles at 1,000 Feet

And the winner is…

I belonged to a motorcycle club called the RATS (Rambunctious, Adventuresome, Two-Wheeled Scalawags) which bestows various awards to their members.  One of the more prestigious awards was called the “Iron Butt” to the member who logs the most miles during a single day/week/month/year.  As riders we eschew bucket seats, air conditioning and radio for saddles, sights, sounds and smells often missed by those driving the sedans, SUV’s, crossovers and pickup trucks with whom we share the road.

Flying a tube and fabric tail-dragger is the aeronautic equivalent to a motorcycle, especially an airplane like the Legend Cub.  Its simple systems along with doors and windows that can be opened in flight, allow pilot and passenger alike to be a part of the atmosphere surrounding the airplane, much like a motorcycle makes you feel a part of the road.

Since 1986, Sporty’s has awarded 32 lucky customers an airplane in its famous sweepstakes drawing. You have probably read by now that Sporty’s next sweepstakes airplane is a Legend Cub.  Additionally, Eastern Cincinnati Aviation, Sporty’s FBO, has signed on as an American Legend Aircraft distributor offering 100, 115 and 180 horsepower versions of the venerable Super Cub.  My assignment to pick up the sweepstakes Cub proved to be a great opportunity to tour the factory, grab some stick time in N452SP, and maybe qualify for Sporty’s version of the Iron Butt award.

 

Mr. Piper, Welcome to 2015

legend cub wingAmerican Legend Aircraft is located on the KSLR airport in Sulphur Springs, Texas.  Occupying a series of hangars near the south end of the field, American Legend manufactures LSA versions of the iconic Cub aircraft.  “We improved the Cub where we could and left alone the parts that were great already!” stated Darin Hart, American Legend’s head honcho.  Obvious improvements are the opening doors on both sides of the airframe, an electrical system which provides lights, avionics, and a starter (eliminating the need for hand propping).  The in-wing fuel tanks allow solo flight from either the front or back seat.  Less obvious are the improvements in the corrosion proofing and welding processes that may allow these respected airframes to last well into the next century just as their predecessors from Lock Haven made it from last century into this one.

tundra tiresAfter the tour and the obligatory paperwork, it was time to hop in 2SP with Darin for a few quick landing circuits.  2SP is equipped with 22 inch “Tundra Tires” that provide over two feet of propeller ground clearance and makes for a greater appreciation of that whole flying from the front seat thing.

For those who have not had the experience, traditionally Cubs had to be soloed from the rear seat to keep the airplane in weight and balance envelope.  This created a lack of forward visibility while taxiing requiring the pilot to do a series of “S” turns to clear the area ahead out of the side windows. 

From the front seat I had enough forward visibility to taxi straight ahead without having to turn.  Though it lacks a formal turf runway, KSLR does have a mowed area suitable for landing providing the natural habitat for taildraggers.  Four landings later (three on the grass, one on the pavement), I was declared ready to begin the 700 mile journey back to Sporty’s.  Navigation on the trip was going to be made easier by the introduction of ForeFlight displayed on a panel mounted iPad and Stratus ADS-B/GPS receiver.

 

cub panel

Eastbound and Down

With the east Texas sun to my back and both doors and windows open, I settled into a comfortable altitude of 2,000 feet MSL.  Lacking an autopilot, it is much easier to fly the Cub low allowing you to adjust pitch based on the terrain rather than watching the altimeter needles wind and unwind.  At 1,000 feet AGL, the only likely traffic is the model B1RD or perhaps one of the numerous crop dusters tending the Mississippi River bottoms cotton crops.  ForeFlight’s synthetic vision displayed towers I might encounter and the profile view informed me I might have to climb a little to make it over Arkansas’s Ozark “Mountains” (being from Kentucky, calling anything 2,000 feet tall a mountain seems a little ridiculous but I am sure that what people from Utah say about the hills of eastern Kentucky).

countryI had ADS-B coverage for the entire trip keeping me up-to-date on en-route weather and especially the winds at my destination.  I was comfortable in the taildragger but not yet ready to take on a stiff crosswind while landing on a paved runway with those big sticky tires. Two and a half hours later I was touching down in Conway Arkansas in the 100 degree heat of the late afternoon.  By now I was thinking about finding a place to spend the night and selected Union City, TN another 200 miles northeast.  A quick telephone call confirmed the availability of fuel, tie downs and a ride into town for a motel.  Soon the hills of Arkansas gave way to the river bottoms of the “Boot Heel” region of Missouri.  Cotton and other crops have been raised in this fertile soil for hundreds of years and offered a stark contrast to the forests over which I had just flown.  Union City came into sight just the other side of the Mississippi River.  After landing I fueled up and tied down for the night.

 

Rockin Pneumonia and the Boogie Woogie Flew

land betwee lakesA check of the weather on day two revealed a previously stalled front in the upper Midwest had decided to start moving as a cold front to the southeast.  Southwest winds picking up ahead of the front would give me a welcome push I would need to beat some thunderstorms traveling towards the same airport that I was.  After departing Union City, my plan was to make it to Elizabethtown, Kentucky (same one as in the movie) for some fuel and lunch then on to Sporty’s at the Clermont County Airport (I69).  My flight path took me over Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in far western Kentucky.  Flying over “The Land Between the Lakes,” I spotted an eagle which I presumed was on a fishing trip to one of the lakes and major repairs being made to the US 68 bridge over Lake Barkley.

I was still enjoying the sights and smells of flying low (my option) and slow (no other option in the Cub) but more frequently checking the weather for Clermont.  Maybe if I skip the lunch in E-town I could still beat the rain heading for Sporty’s.  The front was announcing its arrival by providing a steady dose of turbulence and lowering ceilings.  Winds at nearby Fort Knox were from 270 at 20 which would marginally add to the excitement of my landing on runway 23 at Elizabethtown.

Sure enough, on final approach the windsock was extended indicating a right quartering crosswind.  Just like a tricycle geared airplane, the crosswind landing is the same.  Crab into the wind until the flair, then use the rudder to align the longitudinal axis with the runway and aileron to keep it over the center line.  However, touchdown is merely where the fun starts and you truly aren’t done flying until all the parts quit moving.  Judicious use of aileron, rudder and differential brakes kept me on the runway and taxiway to the ramp.  Before shut down a quick look at the weather on the iPad was indicating the weather was heading to I69 faster than I was, but just maybe…

 

Finding Victory in Defeat

flooded fieldAnother check of the weather departing Elizabeth after getting fuel, a Diet Mt. Dew and a Snickers bar for lunch indicated that Clermont County was still doable – to the northeast I continued.  Recent rains had caused the Kentucky River to flood and I felt sorry for all the farmer’s labor and capital that was now underwater, but I continued to be focused on my destination’s weather.

About 45 miles out, I was able to pick up the AWOS broadcast for I69 and the real time weather did not look good.  Ceilings were still acceptable, but now the winds were from 320 at 15 gusting to 25.  The crosswinds for Clermont County’s 4/22 runway was beyond my comfort level and I began to look for alternatives. Masters Acres, my wife’s and my little corner of Kentucky, is located just six miles south of the Fleming Mason Airport (KFGX).

Tuning in the AWOS at KFGX, I learned the winds were a stiff 25 knots, but directly aligned with runway 25.  A right turn and freshening winds took my groundspeed over 100 knots.  Pretty exciting for a Cub driver.  Soon enough, the long, wide runway at Fleming Mason came into sight and I set up for a left downwind to runway 25.  I turned base abeam the numbers realizing the strong headwinds would give me plenty of room to land as the FBO is located towards the southwestern end of the field.

After what seemed like a near vertical descent, I flared for a 3-point landing with more than half the 5,000 foot long runway remaining.  Due to the headwinds I estimate I touched down at about 10 to 15 MPH groundspeed and my ground roll was easily less than 100 feet.  (I’m thinking about signing up for Valdez next year – but only if they can guarantee a 25 knot wind straight down the runway). I taxied to the ramp with the satisfaction that comes from knowing the Cub was safely on the ground and I would spend the night in my own bed.

 

Angry Skies

cub in hangarMitch Coleman, the Airport Manager at FGX and RATS Head Cheese (High Exalted and Dedicated Chief Handler of Each and Every Sneaky Endeavor), met me on the ramp and offered a spot in the community hangar to shelter the Cub from the approaching thunderstorms.  I know hail does not have the same effect on fabric as it does on aluminum, but still agreed N452SP would be better off inside for the night.  A call back to the office at Clermont County confirmed what the radar was showing.  A pretty strong thunderstorm was in progress and I (and the Cub) was much better off at FGX.  The next morning the fog lifted to form another 1,200 foot ceiling but the winds were relatively calm.  A half hour later the Cub was parked in its hangar at I69 to be prepared for its next trip.

Another 520 miles to Oshkosh.  Flying a Legend Cub into AirVenture would be my next adventure and one I will cover in the future.

 

New Experience for an Old Pilot

I have spent hundreds of hours flying airplanes with autopilots, glass panels, air-conditioning – the works.  In such a bird you are pilot in command and have to alertly monitor the trip but the reality is the flight consists of: 1) Checking the weather and NOTAMS, 2) Planning your route, 3) Filing an IFR flight plan, 4) Taking off, 5) Pressing maybe three buttons, 6) Talking on the radio to controllers who keep us informed of traffic and flight conditions, 7) Programming an approach, 8) Pressing some more buttons, 9) Disconnecting the autopilot, 10) Landing, 11) Cancelling IFR, 12) Shut down.  Much as a motorcycle provides a different traveling experience than a car; the 9 hours spent in the Cub provided experience in a simpler kind of flying: 1) Wings – On, 2) Fuel – On, 3) Engine – On, 4) Take-off, 5) Fly, 6) Land.  I like it.

An AirVenture Oshkosh to Remember

GA shines on the world stage

I’m just back from the greatest aviation show on earth – EAA AirVenture in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.  One week each year, Oshkosh (home of the Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA)) is transformed into the center of the aviation universe.  And for this one week, Wittman Regional Airport (KOSH), becomes the world’s busiest airport.  AirVenture 2015 was even busier thanks to spectacular weather, education and entertainment for the entire family, and of course, the indescribable energy created by the passionate, diverse group of aviators that is the general aviation community.

More than a half million people attended this year’s event, making it the highest-attended show in at least a decade.  There were more than 16,300 arrivals and departures throughout the week, including more than 3,000 arrivals in a single day.  These numbers don’t include the thousands of operations conducted at nearby reliever airports.

Adding to the excitement and enthusiasm was a diverse lineup of aircraft including the B-52, F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptor and the Airbus A350.  The arrival of the, eight-engine B-52 was the result of nearly eight months of coordination given the outrigger landing gear of the mammoth bomber spans 148 feet and the runway is only 150 feet wide at KOSH.

The impressive arrival of the F-22 Raptor was extra special for the local community.  Maj. John Cummings, an Appleton, Wisconsin native who spent years coming to AirVenture as a child, now leads the F-22 demonstration team and was personally welcomed by friends and family.

Goodyear’s newest airship, Wingfoot One made its first Oshkosh appearance continuing a long tradition of appearances.  Icon Aircraft presented EAA with an Icon A5, the much-celebrated and newly certified amphibious, light-sport aircraft initially unveiled at AirVenture back in 2008.

A record 74 Cessnas traveled from Juneau, Wisconsin to Oshkosh for the annual Cessnas to Oshkosh mass arrival.  Their number grows each year.  Pilots participating represented 30 states and two Canadian provinces.  While not near the number of Cessnas but equally impressive, were the 19 Stinson airplanes arriving together as part of the International Stinson Club – all produced between 1946 and 1949.

Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger and Jeff Skiles, best known as the pilots who “landed” their Airbus A320 on the Hudson River in 2009, received the Freedom of Flight Award at the EAA Annual Meeting.  Special tributes to legendary aviator Burt Rutan and the Apollo 13 crew added to the magical week.  Rutan, continuing to push the envelope in aircraft design, is already working on his latest.  The SkiGull, Rutan’s 46th design, is a trimaran-hulled, amphibious airplane designed to land on water, snow, ice, and other unimproved surfaces.  Rutan plans on bringing the SkiGull to AirVenture 2016.

EAA officially opened its Aviation Gateway Park, meant to inspire and get youth interested in aviation and innovation.  As if there weren’t enough going along the flight line, the Park includes the Innovation Center, Forums Area and Education/Career Center as well as drone cage which attracted a lot of attention throughout the week with daily competitions.

Country music superstar and pilot, Dierks Bentley, performed the opening night concert to a massive crowd on Boeing Plaza.  Dierks’ interest in aviation, like most of us, goes back to childhood growing up in Phoenix.  Now a Cirrus SR22 owner and full-blown aviation enthusiast, he relies on his freedom to fly to keep him better connected to his wife and three kids while maintaining a busy travel schedule.  He even has a position on a new Cirrus Vision Jet and is looking forward to the jet transition.

The coordination and volunteerism never ceases to amaze me at EAA AirVenture.  In particular, Oshkosh legend Fred Stadler received the Phillips 66 Leadership Award.  About 15 years ago, Stadler and his wife moved from Texas to Oshkosh, in part to be close to EAA’s headquarters.  Most days during the summer you’ll find Stadler helping out at Pioneer Airport on the EAA grounds and piloting Young Eagle Flights.  In fact, Mr. Stadler recently flew his 6,000th Young Eagle but graciously shuns the spotlight in favor of the thousands of volunteers and supporters that make the program possible.  To his point, the number of volunteers on the grounds at AirVenture exceeded 5,000.

An annual tradition of AirVenture is its salute to veterans.  Courtesy of an American Airlines B737, nearly 100 Vietnam veterans flew from Oshkosh to Washington, D.C. to visit the memorials that honor their service and sacrifice.  The veterans visited the Vietnam Veterans Memorial, the Smithsonian and Arlington National Cemetery before returning to Oshkosh.  The day’s events also included a parade and warbird air show.

On the opposite end of the spectrum was the constant entertainment of the Fun Fly Zone, also known as the ultralight area.  At the southernmost reaches of the field each year, ultralights gather at the Fun Fly Zone to showcase the latest innovations and enjoy the many forms of purely recreational aviation in light, single-seat aircraft.

The night airshow didn’t disappoint – yes, night airshow – aerobatics without any real outside reference.  AirVenture’s night airshow featured the AV-8B Harrier, the F-4 Phantom and the F-100 Sabre.  Pilot Gene Soucy also performed in his modified Grumman biplane with wings that include 20 stainless steel tubes that store fireworks.  The show concluded with fireworks and the “wall of fire.”

AirVenture 2015 was the best show I’ve attended.  I say that each year and each year I mean it.  I can’t possibly take you to Oshkosh by virtue of describing the week’s events and my personal experiences, but I can say there’s nothing else like it in aviation.  It’s a reminder that the aviation community is not only alive and well, but thriving.  And no matter your experiences in aviation, there’s always something new to learn, see and enjoy.

Yes, it’s too late to experience this year’s show, but it’s just the right time to be making your plans for next year.  AirVenture 2016 – July 25 – 31, Oshkosh, Wisconsin (KOSH).

More Out with the Old, In with the New

Earlier this week I was speaking to a pilot about a Private Pilot checkride that he had recently completed. He indicated that things went positively on the oral examination though the weather portion had been a struggle. The struggle was not because the applicant didn’t have a knowledge of current weather products, but because the examiner had some favorite weather products that he always liked to test on examinations. Products, by the way, that are no longer available from the National Weather Service.

When the applicant asked the examiner for more information, the examiner pulled out a worn and out of date copy of Advisory Circular (AC) 00-45, Aviation Weather Services. AC 00-45 is a great reference but even the latest edition as of this writing is not up to date with recent weather product changes. An older version of the book should only be used for a history lesson, not current flight instruction or examinations. By the way, I do not know this examiner nor is it someone that our flight school uses, but it sounds like it is time for him to update his Plan of Action and reference materials.

Back in February, 2015, I wrote a post about the demise of the old Radar Summary Chart and TWEB products. This month I’ll cover the Lifted Index & K-Index chart and its replacements.

Lifted Index / K-Index Chart

NWS-CompositeMoistureStabilI first encountered the Lifted Index Analysis / K-Index Analysis chart (L/K) as one of the four charts contained on a Composite Moisture Stability Chart (CMSC). The CMSC disappeared a couple of years before the L/K but was a tool for determining the stability, moisture content, and freezing levels of the atmosphere below 18,000 feet. It included the L/K, a Precipitable Water Analysis, an Average Relative Humidity Analysis, and a Freezing Level Analysis. Using the four charts together you could get a rough idea about the possibility of thunderstorms, the likelihood of their severity, and how much moisture was available to feed the storm.

The L/K was a big piece of this analysis. These indexes measured moisture and stability (or instability); key ingredients in the formation of thunderstorms.

A Lifted Index (LI) is purely a measure of stability. It is the difference between the theoretical temperature of a parcel of air lifted from the surface to around 18,000 feet (500mb) and the actual temperature at that level. A positive LI means that the atmosphere is essentially stable below 18,000 feet and a negative LI means it is unstable.

The K-Index (KI) measures both moisture and stability at certain levels of the atmosphere and is a bit more complicated to calculate. The formula is KI = (850mb temp – 500mb temp) + (850mb dew point) – (700mb temp/dew point spread). 850mb is around 5000 feet, 700mb is around 10,000 feet, and of course 500mb is around 18,000 feet.

Values for KI range from high positive values to low negative values. High positive KI (greater than +20) implies moist and unstable air. Low or negative KI (less than +20) implies dry and stable air.

When used together, the LI & KI values told you the likelihood of thunderstorms and their severity if they happened. See the charts below for their use.

Lifted-K-Index-Chart

If you knew how to use this chart, it gave a quick overview of thunderstorm potential. If you wanted to know about the instability of the lower atmosphere, which is important to many pilots, the LI portion was great for a glance.

NWS-LastLiftedKIndexOn the negative side, most pilots did not have any real idea how to use the chart. It wasn’t intuitive and the key wasn’t included on the chart. It also only came out twice per day and it was based on historical temperatures and dew points determined during recent soundings. It wasn’t useful for fast moving storms and the further you got from the time of the soundings the less reliable the data became for determining thunderstorm likelihood.

It appears that the National Weather Service issued their last L/K chart on March 16th, 2009. As of today, I could only find a couple of sources with a current L/K chart and one may be gone by the time this is published. The one that may be gone was DTC DUAT and they lost their recent bid with the FAA to remain a DUAT provider. Depending on the outcome of their dispute with the FAA and internal decisions, their L/K may be a thing of the past. Lockheed-Martin FSS was the other source with a true L/K chart. (CSC DUAT has a variant with some significant differences.)

So What Can I Use?

AWC - ADDS ConvectionThere are numerous products currently produced by the National Weather Service to replace the intended use of the L/K chart. Some of my personal favorites can be found on https://aviationweather.gov/convection. This includes several charts related to thunderstorms and is known as the ADDS Convection page. You need to click into the chart shown on the page to get the full details.

The Current Convective SIGMETs chart shows a graphical representation of Convective SIGMETs and outlooks for convective activity. This shows where things are currently bad and could become bad with regard to thunderstorms.

The Experimental Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) Convective Forecast Planning Guidance is known as the CCFP. These graphics are produced every 2 hours and are valid for 2, 4, 6, and 8 hours after issuance. While the product was designed for the FAA to help make decisions about traffic flow, it can be useful for pilots as well for short term evaluation of thunderstorm forecasts.

NWS-ecfp-FullThe Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) Planning Tool is another graphical representation of the forecast probability of thunderstorms. It is related to the CCFP and uses similar graphics but shows the likelihood of thunderstorms over the next 72 hours instead of 8.

The National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product shows current convective hazards and 1-hour extrapolation forecasts of thunderstorm hazard locations. It looks a bit like a radar screen but it is only showing convective hazards. It updates every 5 minutes. Clicking on a region of the map allows you to zoom in more closely.

The national radar is easily accessed from ADDS Convective page along with a map of current weather watches and warnings issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma.

The final product shown on this page is the Convective Outlook also produced by the SPC. This product is produced as Day 1 through Day 8 charts. The shorter range charts tend to be more useful and provide a general expectation about the chances of any thunderstorm but more importantly give an indication about the risk for a severe thunderstorm. Information on the Day 1 Convective Outlook page also shows expectations for tornados, damaging winds, and hail. If you learned about Convective Outlooks more than a year ago, you will need a refresher as categories for the severe thunderstorm outlooks were changed earlier this year.

SPC-ConvOutlook-understanding_categories

As you might imagine, the Storm Prediction Center, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/, has quite a few excellent products showing forecasts for storms. Take some time and explore their site before your next flight with convective weather nearby.

Conclusion

For many years, change in aviation was a slow process and it really still is, but change does come and all of us, especially flight instructors and pilot examiners, need to keep up. The L/K chart has essentially become a relic of history but this twice a day product of historical data has been replaced with faster and easier to interpret products. From twice a day to up to 288 times per day. I think there may have been some improvements.